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In a recent commentary published on The Indian Express (May 14), Professor Ashutosh Varshney (Brown University) argues that the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict displays five new characteristics compared to previous confrontations. His analysis identifies those notable points:
- The conflict reflects the changing nature of war, with both sides deploying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). While previous India-Pakistan tensions were often framed within the Cold War's U.S.-Soviet rivalry, this round has introduced new external dimensions, including the strategic presence of China, Israel, and France.
- For the first time since 1971, India has conducted deep strikes into Pakistani territory, particularly in Punjab. Some targets reportedly lie within 40 kilometers of Lahore.
- The U.S. has never played such an intensive role in conflict de-escalation between India and Pakistan. In 1999, the Clinton administration pressured Pakistan to withdraw during the Kargil War, but India stayed diplomatically aloof. In 1972, India asserted that Kashmir was a bilateral issue, sidelining American involvement.
- For the first time, strong nationalist currents dominate both political-military establishments. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has long been criticized for Hindu nationalist rhetoric. In Pakistan, Army Chief Asim Munir, seen as an emerging strongman, brings with him a nationalist and assertive profile.
The article offers several highly generalizable observations. However, it does not address some recent developments, such as:
- The emerging involvement of new actors such as Qatar, the UAE, or Turkiye in the conflict, either directly through political statements or indirectly via technology transfers, has yet to be addressed.
- India’s new international standing, which is increasingly influential, is also absent from the analysis. Prime Minister Modi has actively promoted India’s rising global role, as reflected in the country’s positioning within forums such as the G20 and BRICS.
- A broader trend of growing acceptance of geopolitical risk and hard-power confrontation in international relations has not been explored.
- The direct implications for Indo-Pacific security are also worth deeper examination. While this is not a new concern, the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China strategic competition, including recent developments in U.S.-India and China-Pakistan relations, introduce new layers of complexity in the event of an India-Pakistan conflict.
For instance, some analysts argue that the United States may increase its attention to South Asia to prevent China from exploiting a distracted India to expand its influence.
Conversely, others suggest that such a conflict could offer an opening for U.S.-China cooperation.