On March 13, Foreign Affairs published an
article by Prof. Monica Duffy Toft from Tufts University, arguing that the world’s great powers are dividing “spheres of influence”, resembling what happened in the final days of World War II.
Particularly, with regards to settlement of the Ukraine conflict, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping may follow the model of dividing Europe into areas under separate influences made by Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin at Yalta in 1945, with China currently reprising the role of the United Kingdom back then. Such a scenario is even more likely as the three incumbent leaders all demonstrate these following tendencies: (i) pursuing power politics; (ii) considering their country’s current status not worthy of its glorious past; and (iii) desiring to avoid nuclear confrontation and conflict escalation among themselves.
Additionally, the author also points out several factors that could prevent such a “spheres of influence” scenario. First, EU and NATO could acclimate and pursue more independent strategies, thereby avoiding being a “play card” and creating a balancing force against the great powers. Second, the Yalta order was largely based on resource consideration (e.g. the allocation of metal and oil, etc.), yet today resources are distributed widely across the globe, stripping the major powers off the monopolies they once enjoyed. Third, contemporary history shows that global systems could stabilize itself and return to multilateralism and globalization, even after some major shocks.
Such a probability also looms over the Asia-Pacific region, particularly with regards to Taiwan and the South China Sea hot spots. Nevertheless, the author’s second hypothesis (of the “sphere” scenario being prevented) thus far seems to be more plausible, considering the moves by the U.S., Russia, and China. The Trump’s Administration has largely maintained Biden’s approaches towards the South China Sea, and there are inherent rifts between China and Russia that could hinder their alignments. Middle powers’ policies are also impactful, hence not easy to be used for “sphere” division. India, Japan and Australia have been promoting strategic balancing among great powers, while ASEAN is reinforcing its centrality. Besides, ideological differences (Western democracies versus non-democracies) – which was a major factor that shaped the Yalta order, has gradually lost its importance or changed in meaning in today’s international politics.
Translated and edited by HDKN
An original version of this article was published here
