A Chinese base on Scarborough would allow Chinese military forces to monitor and threaten the Philippine island of Luzon, including the large naval facility at Subic Bay 120 miles away. It would also give Beijing a triangle of military facilities around the central shipping lanes of the South China Sea, joining bases in the Paracel Islands to the west and the Spratlys to the south. The sea is larger than the Mediterranean and is a conduit to some $5 trillion a year in global maritime trade.
China’s conquest of Scarborough in 2012 was the most Putinesque move of its post-2008 drive to conquer its “near seas.” As the Russian leader has used unofficial militias (“little green men”) to take territory in Ukraine, Beijing used civilian fishing fleets backed by armed Coast Guard and maritime law-enforcement ships.
In July 2012 the U.S. brokered an agreement for both Philippine and Chinese ships to withdraw from the area, but China broke the deal and still holds the territory.
Philippine officials warned of Chinese designs for Scarborough as early as last summer. But the Obama Administration has largely kept mum, as it also has regarding China’s threat to Philippine marines on Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratlys.
Our sources say the ships seen around Scarborough could begin landfill work with little delay once Beijing gives the word.
Timing is especially sensitive because by June a United Nations court in the Hague is expected to rule against Beijing in a case brought by Manila over maritime claims. China may want to lock in maximum gains before that happens.
Washington can’t establish deterrence overnight, but U.S. leaders should warn Beijing specifically over Scarborough and reaffirm America treaty commitments to the Philippines. With annual U.S.-Philippine military exercises soon to begin—known as Balikatan, for “shoulder-to-shoulder” in Tagalog—the U.S. Navy could also signal seriousness by parking a destroyer or two nearby.
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