China's Military Drills Outside the South China Sea: Strategic Implications

Read the original post in Vietnamese here

 

On February 21, a fleet of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), consisting of the frigate Hengyang, cruiser Zunyi, and supply ship Weishanhu, began a naval exercise in international waters, 346 nautical miles off the coast of Eden, Australia. Following that, from February 22 to 24, China continued to conduct live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand. Although there was initial controversy surrounding China’s actions, both Australia and New Zealand eventually confirmed that China had provided prior notification, and that the activity was conducted solely in international waters. A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense also issued a similar statement.

 

What is notable, however, is that this is an unprecedented military drill by the PLAN in the Tasman Sea and it comes in the wake of allegations that a Chinese vessel fired flares in front of an Australian military aircraft operating in international airspace over the South China Sea. What messages might China be sending with these actions?

 

On one hand, China’s drills demonstrate the combat capabilities of its navy, particularly in distant seas. Over the years, China has consistently pursued military modernization with the alleded goal of transforming its armed forces into a world-class military. In practice, China now possesses one of the largest naval combat forces in the world, along with the world’s leading shipbuilding capacity. Moreover, the firepower of the PLAN is rapidly approaching that of the United States Navy. China’s swift military expansion is placing the PLAN of maritime power.

 

Secondly, against the backdrop of the newly inaugurated Trump administration, which appears to be recalibrating its alliance strategies, this move by China could also be aimed at testing U.S. willingness and ability to defend its partners during the evolving power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. While the Trump 2.0 administration has reaffirmed its support for the AUKUS alliance in general and the U.S.-Australia alliance in particular, the shift in U.S. posture toward Ukraine has raised questions about the reliability of its commitments to allies.

 

On the other hand, China’s drills also serve as a deterrent to regional countries. Although these exercises were conducted in international waters, their location—close to Australia and New Zealand—carries significant weight. Both nations, though outside the immediate South China Sea region, are U.S. allies and share largely on South China Sea issues. China’s activities in distant waters like the Tasman Sea are seen as a demonstration of its long-range military projection capabilities, while also sending a strong message of opposition to recent U.S. and allied operations in the South China Sea.