The Republican Party in the Trump 2.0 Era: One’s Loss, Another's Gain

Since his second inauguration, President Donald Trump has made a series of unexpected personnel decisions which confused not only external observers but also some Republican Party (GOP)’s members, such as appointing former military officer and Fox News host Pete Hegseth as the Secretary of Defense and nominating three-star General Dan Caine – a former CIA official, for the position of White House’s Chief of Staff. These moves highlight significant uncertainties surrounding the GOP's internal cohesion and the competition for influence among factions within the Party itself.

 

Preliminary observations suggest the current GOP can be divided into three key factions:

 

 

This group consists of individuals who, while maintaining a hardline stance against China, advocate for a systematic approach that respects established principles, alliances, and America’s traditional engagement in regions like the Middle East and Europe.

 

However, their influence on both domestic and foreign policy appears to have been waning. Trump continues to implement policies and appoint government officials despite opposition or skepticism from Republican Traditionalists. A prime example is Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s apparent lack of influence in the Ukraine conflict negotiations, despite his past support for Ukraine and criticism of Russia following the 2014 Crimea crisis.

 

 

This group includes officials who express unwavering loyalty to Trump personally or to the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) political movement. They tend to align themselves with Trump’s priorities and often justify his controversial decisions and rhetoric. Given Trump's disregard for the Traditionalist faction, some former Traditionalists appear to have shifted their allegiance to the Loyalists to avoid being sidelined.

 

Certain officials who have openly championed MAGA seem to wield considerable influence in Trump 2.0’s administration. For instance, Secretary of Defense Hegseth was recently authorized to investigate politicians suspected of corruption.

 

 

This faction consists of billionaires and business owners who supported Trump's campaign and are now leveraging their personal connections with him to gain influence in the policy processes.

 

The influence of this group appears to be growing, albeit not yet fully defined. Trump's policy decisions thus far – such as promoting cryptocurrency, delaying the TikTok ban, threatening retaliation to protect American companies, reducing taxes and government, and ending incentives for foreign businesses – are all favorable for this group and might have been a result of their lobbying efforts. Notably, Elon Musk has been appointed to lead the newly established "Department of Government Efficiency," playing a key role in efforts to streamline the federal bureaucracy and curb public spending. However, following a conflict between Rubio and Musk over USAID cut, Trump clarified that Musk's role is advisory rather than decision-making.

 

These dynamics suggest that the Republican Party is not unitary as some might have suggested. As a result, U.S. foreign policy under Trump 2.0 may drift further from traditional Republican principles (such as conservative internationalism), becoming more transactional and unpredictable.