After delaying for months, the Obama administration has authorized the US Pacific Command to send warships into the disputed South China Sea, and China is threatening to confront the naval presence as part of an aggressive buildup in the region.
The longer America waits to challenge any new precedent, the more firmly it becomes precedent.The longer delay could actually raise the prospect for conflict and offer China an opportunity to blame Washington for any future confrontation by disrupting what had emerged as a peaceful status quo.
As Washington steps up its activities near man-made islands built by Beijing in disputed South China Sea waters, some experts are saying that Japan, with its newly empowered military, could play a larger role in the increasingly fraught quarrel.
The danger of the marine ecosystem destruction as a result of China’s construction of artificial islands is aggravated by the harm already caused to the marine environment by human activities. According to data, 70% of reefs in the South China Sea are in the process of decomposition, and the fish resources have declined by 40%.
It is widely expected that in the next several days, the United States will conduct a freedom of navigation exercise near China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea.
Forecast: (1) China will continue to push the envelope in the SCS as controlling the waters is key to its national security strategy; (2) The US will be limited in its ability to respond because of its concerns about escalation and because of China's nuclear capabilities; (3) Beijing will lobby Washington to keep Japan out of the dispute, but Tokyo will remain involved.
International affairs If China militarises the Spratly Islands and there is a clash with the US navy, almost one-third of global trade will be at risk.
-(NYPost 01/11) China takes over the sea and ‘Bamlet’ dithers - again: The President has responded to “wildfires” with a water pistol. -(IBTimes 01/11) Armed Chinese Fighter Jets Train Over Controversial Spratly Islands: The armed jets that flew training missions took off from China's recently constructed airstrip on the Spratly Islands
PH slams China actions; China Defends Its Activity of Installing Two Lighthouses in disputed South China Sea; U.S. deploys advanced missile defense ship to Japan; Policymakers to decide South China Sea patrols; Australia should send warships to South China Sea.
After months of internal debate, the White House permitted the Defense Department to sail one ship near a reef in the SCS that China claims. The Chinese reaction shows Beijing has no intention of backing down. Now the Obama administration is debating what to do next.