On July 12, an International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) ruling dismissed much of China’s claim to the South China Sea. Since then, there has been a great deal of discussion on the legal ramifications, China’s response and public opinion.
In a seminal article in 1978 Robert Jervis outlined the concept of the security dilemma. Jervis observed that ‘many of the means by which a state tries to increase its security decreases the security of others’.
Canada has as much interest in the stability of the Asia-Pacific as it does Eastern Europe, if not more. Not only does Canada have extensive economic interests in the region, the many partners Canada has been attempting to build relationships with do too.
China is preparing for its go or go home moment in the South China Sea and it appears they have chosen the right time to make a play for regional and, ultimately, global dominance.
It seems if the People’s Republic of China is going to make a push to radically alter the status-quo in the South China Sea by reclaiming the hotly disputed Scarborough Shoal that is clearly within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines.
A war between China and the US would be “intense, destructive, and protracted”, according to an analysis for the US Army that warns the fast-growing Asian power is quickly closing the technological gap and could match America’s military within a decade.
A new study has warned US policy makers that a war between China and US could erupt if regional disputes, such as the South China Sea, continue to inflame tensions.
The future of the global maritime commons and the Asian balance of power is at stake in the South China Sea.
Contrary to the view that the South China Sea disputes are driven by a regional hunger for seabed energy resources, the real and immediate prizes at stake are the region’s fisheries and marine environments that support them.
The Philippine Islands has a problem. It has international law on its side in its quarrel with China over maritime territory, but no policeman walking his beat to enforce the law.