Weekly Bulletin (20 May - 26 May)

Activities of the Claimants

China

China unresonably claims its sovereignty over Co May Shoal

In a press conference on May 22^nd, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei stated: ”The Ren'ai Reef (Co May Shoal) is part of the Nansha Islands (Spratly islands). China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands (Spratly islands) and their adjacent waters. It is beyond reproach that Chinese government vessels carry out normal patrol in relevant waters.

Chinese cruises sail to Paracel Islands

Illegal cruises to the Paracel in the South China Sea began to sell at major travel agencies following a successful maiden voyage last month. The five-day cruise is priced between 7,000 yuan ($1,140) to 9,000 yuan, departing once or twice a month, said He Yong, general manger of Ctrip's tourism business department.

China completes deepsea platform

China National Offshore Oil Corp said on May 23^rd it has completed construction of Asia's biggest deepwater platform in the South China Sea. The project, known as the Liwan 3-1 natural gas central offshore platform, will have an annual processing capacity of 12 billion cubic meters after completion and will be put into operation by the end of the year, CNOOC said. The project combines a central platform, an onshore natural gas plant, seven underwater production facilities and a 419-km underwater pipeline.

China's satellite data network reaches South China Sea

A satellite data receiving station was launched on May 24^th enabling China to now obtain observation information about the South China Sea. The station, in Sanya in south China's island province of Hainan, was launched by the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The station has two sets of data receiving and transmission systems, getting information from more than 10 satellites, the statement said.

PLA Navy's three fleets meet in South China Sea

China's navy has carried out a rare joint exercise, involving its three fleets, in the South China Sea as regional tensions over territorial disputes mount. The combined drill was carried out in southern waters by warships, submarines and the naval air force from the People's Liberation Army's North Sea, East Sea and South Sea fleets, national broadcaster CCTV reported on May 25^th.

Taipei releases satellite record

Taiwan on May 21^st released a satellite record of the route of a fishing boat fired on by Philippine coastguards. "The satellite records indicated that the Guang Ta Hsin 28 had been fishing within Taiwan's exclusive economic zone throughout," the agency's deputy chief Tsay Tzu-yaw told AFP. The satellite record showed that the ship was positioned at 122 degrees and 55 minutes east and 19 degrees and 59 minutes north when it was attacked at 10:12 am. The economic zones claimed by each country overlap.

Taiwan protests Philippine naval ships' presence on Spratlys shoal

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan on May 25^th protested the Philippines' dispatch of naval vessels to a shoal in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, saying it would not recognize any unlawful claims.

Vietnam

Chinese ship attacks Vietnamese fishing boat

Pham Dinh Chi, chief secretariat of the province’s Binh Son District People’s Committee, said the Binh Thanh Commune People’s Committee had reported that a local fishing boat, QNg 90917 TS, was attacked by a Chinese boat that day while it was fishing off the islands in the East Sea. The total damage causing the attack is estimated at VND100 million (US$4,800), Trung added.

The Philippines

Philippines boosts military to resist "bullies"

In thinly veiled comments referring to China, Philippine President Aquino vowed during a speech to mark the navy's 115th anniversary that the armed forces would be given the resources necessary to protect Philippine sovereignty. "We have a clear message to the world: The Philippines is for Filipinos, and we have the capability to resist bullies entering our backyard," Aquino told naval chiefs. Aquino detailed a 75-billion-peso (US$1.82-billion) military modernisation programme that gives priority to upgrading the navy, which is one of the weakest in Southeast Asia. He said by 2017 the Philippines would acquire two new frigates, two helicopters capable of anti-submarine warfare, three fast vessels for coastal patrols and eight amphibious assault vehicles. "We will also improve our communications, intelligence and surveillance systems," he said.

Philippines to respond to Taiwan's request for judicial aid

The government of the Philippines will respond in writing to a Taiwanese request for mutual legal assistance within two days, as part of an investigation into the shooting death of a Taiwanese fisherman, the Philippines' representative to Taiwan said May 21^st. Antonio Basilio told CNA that the Philippine Ministry of Justice was studying Taiwan's request that Taiwanese investigators be given access to confirm that bullets they gathered from the Kuang Ta Hsing No. 28 were fired from the guns carried aboard a Philippines government vessel May 9.

Philippines ready to pay NT$1 million over fisherman's death

The chairman of the Manila Economic and Cultural Office (MECO) said Tuesday that the Philippines is prepared to give NT$1 million (US$33,475) to the family of the Taiwanese fisherman shot dead by a Philippine coast guard patrol. Whether the money will constitute compensation or a donation will be determined after the investigation into the fatal shooting is completed, Amadeo Perez told CNA. MECO is the Philippines' de facto embassy in Taiwan in the absence of diplomatic ties between the two countries.

Philippines protests to China over 'illegal' sea presence

The Philippines said on May 21^st it had protested to China at the "illegal" presence of a Chinese warship and other vessels at a shoal occupied by Filipino marines in the South China Sea. “We (have) filed with the Chinese embassy in Manila our protest on the provocative and illegal presence of Chinese government ships around Ayungin Shoal (Co May Shoal)," said foreign affairs department spokesman Raul Hernandez. Hernandez said three vessels -- one warship and two maritime surveillance vessels -- were still near the reefs and islets.

Philippines weighs move on China incursion

The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said on May 22^nd that it was already coordinating with the Philippine Coast Guard and the Philippine Navy to plan a response to the presence of Chinese military and fishing vessels around Co May Shoal. “We are assessing our options and no one should doubt our resolve to defend what is ours,” said DFA spokesman Assistant Secretary Raul Hernandez.

Del Rosario urges China to be ‘a responsible and positive force’

Warning that escalating tensions in the South China Sea “could lead to conflict,” Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario urged China at a foreign policy forum in Tokyo to act responsibly instead of resorting to aggression in the wake of its its rapid rise as an economic and military power in the Asia-Pacific. “China, as the second biggest economy in the world with a position of primacy in the region, is very important to the security and prosperity equation in Asia. We must all support China’s peaceful rise and hope that China will firmly pursue the track of being a responsible power and a positive force,” Del Rosario said.

Philippines heightens naval patrol in Co May Shoal

The Philippine Navy dispatched two ships on May 24^th to Co May Shoal in Spratlys in an effort to increase its patrol presence in the face of the continued encroachment of Chinese vessels. On May 23^rd, Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said the military will protect the country’s territories “up to the last soldier,” when informed about the presence of Chinese vessels in the area. The China frigate was last seen by navy surveillance planes on May 14^th, at five nautical miles or eight kilometers from Co May Shoal, but recent reports had indicated that the warship was now only three nautical miles near the reef.

Thailand

Thailand calls for ASEAN ministers' meeting in August

Thailand proposed on May 23^rd that Southeast Asian ministers meet sometime in August to firm up its position on the protracted South China Sea disputes before meeting with China in Beijing in September, ASEAN diplomats said. Sihasak Phuangketkeow, Thailand's permanent secretary of the Foreign Ministry, told Kyodo News he circulated the proposal during the ASEAN senior officials meeting in the Brunei capital. He added some were still discussing when the meeting will take place, but according to another ASEAN diplomat the ministers will hold a "special retreat" on Aug. 13 and 14 in Hua Hin in Thailand. Thailand is the coordinator for ASEAN-China relations.

Thailand emphasizes on regional peace

Addressing at the international conference themed as “The future of Asia” held in Japan on May 23^rd, Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said that an unstable South China Sea or maritime disputes benefit no one. “It is necessary for Asia to move beyond the legacies of the past and manage challenges that can threaten maritime connectivity. Peace and security are an essential foundation for a better future”, she said.

Singapore

Singapore Prime Minister: Disputes should be peacefully resolved

Addressing at the international conference themed as “The future of Asia” held in Japan on May 23^rd, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that China does have some thorny problems with its neighbours, such as over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and also in the South China Sea and these issues need to be managed peacefully, in accordance with international law. According to him, China wants to build up its armed forces and take its rightful place in an evolving world order. This is natural for any growing and major power and should not surprise anyone. However, all countries are closely watching how China exercises its rising power. By demonstrating its benign purposes through its actions and restraint, China will reassure other countries, and enhance its own security.

Japan

Japan to provide patrol boats to Philippines

In a meeting in Tokyo on May 22^nd, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and his counterpart Albert del Rosario agreed to work together to improve the capabilities of the Philippine Coast Guard. The project will be financed by Japan’s official development assistance, the first such case based on a Japan-U.S. agreement in April 2012. In the meeting between Philippine Foreign Minister Del Rosaria and Japanese Prime Minister Abe, Prime Minister Abe manifested the Japanese Government’s support for the Philippines’ initiation of arbitral proceedings last January, pursuant to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), in its bid to clarify maritime zones and entitlements in the South China Sea.

Regional Snapshots

Chinese premier pays official visit to India

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang arrived India on May 19^th afternoon for the first leg of his maiden foreign trip since he took office in March. During his visit, Li will meet Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, President Pranab Mukherjee and Hamid Ansari, Chairman of Rajya Sabha (the Upper House) of India's Parliament and Vice President. According to Indian Express on May 20^th, China wanted the statement to endorse its position on South China Sea in the context of security in the Asia Pacific, which meant recognising that the disputes there were internal issues of each country and ought to be resolved bilaterally. It made a strong pitch, but India turned it down saying these were international waters where accepted laws of sea apply. 

Philippine-Indonesia Joint Naval Exercise starts

The navies of the Philippines and Indonesia formally commenced the joint civil-military exercise named Corpat-PHILINDO XXVII-13 in a simple ceremony at the Naval Forces Eastern Mindanao Headquarters in Camp Panacan. The exercises is aimed at improving the interoperability of both contingents in guarding their respective territorial waters in the Celebes Sea against terrorism, smuggling and illegal fishing.

Indonesia, US hold joint naval training exercise

The US and Indonesia launched the annual Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) training exercise on May 22^nd. This year’s event will consist of different training components, including medical and aviation symposiums, personnel exchanges, gun and missile fire exercises at sea, jungle training, helicopter and maritime patrol aircraft operations, ship maneuvers, community outreach, a sports day, and joint navy band performances.

Japan, Thailand focus on economic, military relations

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, on Thursday, looking to confirm bilateral relations and strengthening economic and security partnerships between the two Asian countries. “I want to keep enhancing the strategic partnership with Thailand, as the environment in the Asia-Pacific region has significantly changed,” Abe expressed his optimism at start of the meeting in Tokyo.

Indian naval vessels visit Malaysia

Four vessels from the Indian Navy's Eastern Fleet on May 25^th docked at Malaysia ’s Port Klang Cruise Center in a bid to intensify military cooperation with Southeast Asian countries. The visit of the Eastern Fleet is scheduled with a Passage Exercise (Passex) planned with the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) to further ensure peace and maritime security in the region. The four vessels will head to Vietnam on May 29^th and then make a port call in the Philippines . They include the Guided Missile Stealth Frigate Satpura, Guided Missile Destroyer Ranvijay, Guided Missile Corvette Kirch, and Fleet Tanker Shankti.

Commentaries & Analyses

The Philippines’ prospects at the UN Tribunal

By Huy Duong

In its Notification and Statement of Claim on January 22^nd, the Philippines listed thirteen points on which it asked the tribunal to rule. Manila has asked the judges to rule that McKennan Reef forms part of the Philippines’ continental shelf and China must therefore end its occupation of the feature. However, as McKennan Reef lies within the 12 nautical mile territorial sea of Sin Cowe Island, which is disputed, it is unlikely that the tribunal has the authority to rule on the matter. The same applies to Gaven Reef, which lies within the 12 nautical mile territorial sea of Namyit Island, and to Subi Reef, which, though located about 15 nautical miles from Thitu Island proper, might potentially lie within its territorial sea, depending on how the baselines around Thitu are drawn. The points in the Philippines’ case regarding Mischief Reef, Johnson Reef, Cuarteron Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef, and regarding the Philippines’ continental shelf off the coast of Palawan, relate to areas that are within 200 nautical miles of some of the larger features of the Spratlys. Given that the tribunal does not have the jurisdiction to resolve disputes relating to the delimitation of the EEZ, which may extend up to 200 nautical miles from some of the larger features of the Spratlys, it will not have the authority to accept these points unless it is to rule that none of the Spratlys can generate an EEZ. It is possible that the tribunal might come to the view that the Spratly Islands are in fact rocks under Article 121(3) of UNCLOS and thus do not generate EEZs. However, there is significant risk in relying on that possibility. Up until now, the international courts have avoided making potentially controversial interpretations of Article 121(3). Consequently, there is a significant chance that the tribunal will be unable to accept many of the Philippines’ thirteen points. Perhaps this is the reason for China being confident enough to take the risk of not participating in the proceedings, thereby continuing its long-standing policy of rejecting third-party arbitration for the South China Sea disputes. If it turns out that the tribunal is unable to accept a large proportion of the Philippines’ thirteen points, although the results will still be a legal victory for the Philippines, China can take advantage of the points that are not accepted to portray the case as an overall vindication of China’s view. In light of these considerations, the Philippines can avoid overplaying its hand by reviewing its thirteen points and bringing to the tribunal only those that it has a good chance of winning, such as those regarding the legality of China’s 9-dash line and whether or not Scarborough Shoal is just a rock under UNCLOS. That strategy will both maintain the Philippines’ chance of legal victory on the points where it is strongest and deny China a public relations victory on the other points. This will make the most of the rare opportunity that the Philippines has to pit its view against China’s on an equal, possibly even slightly advantageous, basis.

Death of a fisherman could be a crucial turning point in Asia

An international power struggle is brewing behind the scenes in the row between Taiwan and the Philippines over the killing of a Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippine coast guard on May 9^th. The incident has brought relations between the two countries to breaking point after Manila failed to respond in a manner that Taipei deems satisfactory, leading Taiwan's government to issue sanctions cutting cooperation between the countries. Both Taiwan and the Philippines have long been allies of the United States. But the outcry in Taiwan over the killing could well push the country toward China, with Beijing only too happy to back Taiwan up. Historically, the ties between Taiwan and the US were inherited from the cold war. Although the United States established diplomatic ties with the PRC in 1979, the impression that Taiwan is part of America's strategic deployment against mainland China remains. In terms of Taiwan's trade with the United States, Taiwan has enjoyed a trade surplus which has remained constant at around US$10 billion a year since 1998. Meanwhile, Taiwan's trade with China reached US$168.96 billion in 2012, with Taiwan enjoying a surplus of US$95.4 billion. In terms of their defense strategy, however, the US has been Taiwan's ally while China has maintained and even increased its coastal deployment of missiles targeting the island — a constant warning of the consequences if Taiwan were to declare formal independence. However, the recent row with the Philippines has seen the US refuse to condemn the actions of the Philippine authorities until an investigation into the incident has been completed, while China has been quick to denounce the killing. China has the most to gain from the row and is taking advantage of an emotive issue in Taiwan. With even the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party throwing its weight behind anti-Philippine sentiment, it will be crucial to see to what extent the tragic death of a fisherman will push Taiwan toward China and away from the US.

The World Needs a More Active China

By Yukon huang

A year of seemingly intractable Asian diplomatic crises has raised fears of Chinese assertiveness. Behind the brinksmanship in the South China Seas and North Korea, the thinking goes, lies an emboldened Beijing that seeks to use newfound military and economic power to change the state of play. In fact, the opposite dynamic is at work. International relations in Asia have deteriorated in large part because China's willingness to act lags behind its capabilities to do so. The world needs Beijing to become more "active" in shaping global issues, not less. Beijing has long sought to bide its time when dealing with sensitive geopolitical issues. This reflects a belief that hot issues such as North Korea, Taiwan and disputed islands will eventually resolve themselves without confrontation, and that waiting will promote better outcomes. While countries such as the United States are affected by near-term election considerations, China prides itself on an ability to take a much longer view. Beijing's wait-and-see approach fails in practice because events often force China to react before it would have preferred. Beijing's response to maritime disputes, for instance, is not a product of grand strategy. Rather, it is largely a knee-jerk reaction to what China sees as rising nationalism among its neighbors coupled with a containment strategy led by the U.S. This reactive stance has been self-defeating as others come to regard China as deliberately uncooperative. Refusing to work toward multilateral solutions only leaves China with undesirable policy options shaped by more engaged states. The problem is that China cannot be expected to alter its reactive stance as long as it sees itself as an outsider to an international system built by the West. More productive outcomes could be realized if China became more active in crafting the global agenda. The good news is that there are domestic factions in China's government that support such engagement. Others are awaiting signs that Washington will accommodate the realities of an altered power-sharing configuration in the region. As for island disputes, China's objectives would be better served by setting aside the sovereignty question and focusing on narrow confidence-building measures such as joint patrols and training. It should also return to a focus on negotiating less-troublesome joint resource rights. Given the complexity of the sovereignty claims at play, Beijing should welcome, rather than discourage, multilateral approaches in order to achieve more inclusive solutions. A reactive China that seeks power without leadership can help neither itself nor the world.

Philippine 'pivot' in the South China Sea

By Richard Javad Heydarian

Despite earlier hopes that China's leadership transition would yield a constructive re-orientation in its territorial posturing, the Philippines has faced a progressively more assertive People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), which has recently stepped up its "surveillance" missions in the disputed waters. From Manila's point of view, it is only a matter of time before Beijing's perceived encroachments escalate into a direct occupation of disputed features. The Aquino administration has thus opted for a new strategy, anchored by a more muscular diplomacy directed at ASEAN and other international organizations. The aim is to rein in China's perceived assertiveness by building sufficient international pressure to give Manila leverage to restart negotiations towards a regional code of conduct, and/or strike a bilateral agreement with Beijing to ensure an element of sovereignty over disputed features within the Philippines' 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). By resorting to the language of international law and freedom of navigation, Manila has placed wavering regional and global powers under the spotlight, making it increasingly difficult for ASEAN to shun the territorial disputes as a legitimate security concern in need of swift, decisive collective action. Under Brunei's chairmanship of ASEAN, Manila recognizes that it is dealing with a new regional dynamic. Unlike Cambodia, Brunei is a direct party to the South China Sea disputes, with the tiny kingdom determined to showcase its diplomatic ability as a credible arbiter. Alarmed by rising tensions among neighbors, ASEAN's founding members, notably Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, have also expressed their interest in building regional solidarity by re-starting negotiations for a code of conduct and preventing more diplomatic debacles. However, while Manila has changed diplomatic tack, China's hardline position has so far held.