China has modernized its military in tandem with its economic growth. It has committed itself to significant military spending, endeavouring to catch up to the West’s technological prowess by building advanced precision-guided munitions, anti-satellite and cyber-warfare capabilities. In response to China’s strengthening naval capabilities, the Pentagon, which faces cuts of $485 billion over the next decade, has begun a major “pivot” of its strategic priorities. China may, indeed, be seeking chiefly to secure its territory and safeguard sea-lanes for the transport of energy and other natural resources from the Middle East and Africa. Or it may be hardening its economic and territorial claims over the entire South China Sea. In any event, one thing is already becoming clearer—that China’s mounting assertiveness and PACOM’s mandate to reassert itself in the Asia Pacific are setting the stage for a possible new Cold War.
Firepower bristles in South China Sea as rivalries harden
By David Lague
In the early years of China's rise to economic and military prowess, the guiding principle for its government was Deng Xiaoping's maxim: "Hide Your Strength, Bide Your Time." Now, more than three decades after paramount leader Deng launched his reforms, that policy has seemingly lapsed or simply become unworkable as China's military muscle becomes too expansive to conceal and its ambitions too pressing to postpone. The current row with Southeast Asian nations over territorial claims in the energy-rich South China Sea is a prime manifestation of this change, especially the standoff with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal. As China also continues to modernize its navy at breakneck speed, a growing sense of unease over Beijing's long-term ambitions has galvanized the exact response Deng was anxious to avoid, regional security experts say."In recent years, because of the tensions and disputes in the South China Sea, most regional states in Southeast Asia seem to welcome and support U.S. strategic rebalancing in the region," said Li Mingjiang, an assistant professor and China security policy expert at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University.
US-Indonesian relations: A balancing act
By Daniel Bodirsky
With increased Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and a re-posturing of U.S. focus towards East Asia, the most powerful Southeast Asian state finds itself at a crossroads as it seeks to balance long-standing relations with the U.S. and the growing importance of its relationship with China. Indonesia’s short-term strategic interests are based on carefully balancing its relationships with the United States and China. While its neighbours ratchet up anti-Chinese rhetoric over miniscule islands, Jakarta has chosen to follow a path of moderation. As an emerging middle-tier power, Indonesia cannot afford to sacrifice its deepening economic ties with China in favour of a stronger relationship with the U.S., as many of the other states in the region have already done. Thus, Indonesia will likely continue to pursue the middle-ground in conducting its relations in the near future.
Taiwan circling South China Sea bait
By Jens Kastner
With mainland China and Taiwan clinging to all but identical territorial claims, Beijing has invited the Taiwanese to have a big share of the energy cake believed to be at the doorsteps of both sides. It has offered Taipei a chance to jointly explore resource-rich waters in the South China Sea at the expense of other claimants. But while economically the bait seems too good to resist for Taiwan, an island barren not only of natural gas and oil fields but also diplomatic clout, its government under President Ma Ying-jeou will be wary of touching this political hot potato.
Pivoting toward the South China Sea?
By Dereck Bolton
The highly publicized dispute between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal in recent weeks has become yet another reminder of the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea. The United States has pledged to monitor the situation, and for the time it would appear the Philippines and China have backed down from allowing the conflict to escalate. But the recent row highlights some of the difficulty the United States will face as it seeks to reengage itself in the region. The United States must be careful not to go beyond the bounds of regional forums at the risk of alienating China. Washington must focus on helping ASEAN and other countries help themselves in establishing their own security.
Avoiding a U.S.-China War
By Anatol Lieven
U.S. - China relations are on a course that may lead to war, argues Anatol Lieven, professor in the War Studies Department of King’s College London and a senior fellow of the New America Foundation in Washington. Considering China’s current situation, Beijing may not seek to gain global leadership but it obviously wants to dominate East Asia in the near future and deny the U.S. navy access to the seas around China. In addition, China’s involvement in the South China Sea dispute, in which Chinese popular nationalist sentiments have become heavily engaged, poses serious dangers. If clashes erupt, Beijing may find itself in a position where it cannot compromise without severe damage to its domestic legitimacy — very much the position of the European great powers in 1914. Washington would be faced with the choice of either holding aloof and seeing its credibility as an ally destroyed, or fighting China. But a prolonged period of military and strategic rivalry with an economically mighty China will gravely weaken America’s global position.
US 1, China 0
By Rhalph A. Cossa
This was the unofficial headline coming out of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. If China is becoming so increasingly confident, how come Minister Liang did not show up at Shangri-La this year? The official explanation, put forth by the conference convenor was that he was preoccupied with “domestic priorities” and, indeed, one could argue that senior Chinese officials might be hesitant to leave the capital as the game of musical chairs is still underway in the wake of the Bo Xilai scandal. But then why was Liang in Cambodia a week or so ago for the ASEAN Defense Minister Meeting (ADMM)? It seems China’s growing confidence still has its limits. Watchful observers will have to wait until next year to see if the absence of senior Chinese participants this year was a one-off or the start of a trend worthy of more serious analysis.
Standoff in the South China Sea
By Carlyle A. Thayer
Both China and the Philippines claim that Scarborough Shoal is an integral part of their national territory. China refers to Scarborough Shoal as Huangyan Island, claiming “indisputable sovereignty” over the island and adjacent waters on the basis of historical discovery. The Philippines refers to Scarborough Shoal as Panatag Shoal, arguing that if falls within its 200- nautical-mile EEZ. The claim rests on sovereign rights to the resources within the EEZ and continental shelf. The two sides stumbled into this confrontation, taking immediate actions that precluded quick diplomatic resolution. Subsequent posturing only served to entrench antagonistic positions, fueling domestic nationalism on both sides. China’s actions – refusing to make diplomatic concessions, deploying civilian enforcement ships and using economic sanctions – serve as an object lesson to other regional states about potential costs of confronting China over territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
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