Weekly Bulletin (8 October - 14 October)

Activities of the Claimants

China

China opens meteorological bureau at Paracel islands

The so-called Sansha city opened a meteorological  bureau on the island of Phu Lam Island which belongs to Vietnam, in the South China Sea on October 8^th. The bureau will monitor air temperature, humidity, rainfall, thunderstorms, wind speed and direction, and solar radiation, as well as providing a daily weather forecast.

China  to use drones to enhance marine  surveillance

China's pilot program for  the use of unmanned aerial vehicles  (UAVs), commonly known as drones, in  remote-sensing marine surveillance in Lianyungang, a coastal city in eastern Jiangsu  province, recently passed the inspection  and acceptance check of the State Oceanic Administration. China will use more drones to increase surveillance over its coastal waters, expand its marine surveillance scope, and enhance overall management and control over its territorial waters.

China has de facto control over Scarborough Shoal

Long used as a shelter by Filipino fishermen but subject to conflicting claims by both the Philippines and China, the hotly disputed Scarborough Shoal is now under the de facto control of China, according to a former Philippine senior foreign affairs official. “Remember, China roped off the area and no fishermen and no vessels from the Philippines can go in,” said former foreign affairs undersecretary Lauro Baja Jr.

Vietnam

Viet Nam requests China to respect the sovereignty of Viet Nam

Recently, China has conducted various activities that seriously violate Viet Nam’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa (Paracel) and Truong Sa (Spratly) islands. Speaking at a press conference on October 11^th, LTNI#R(U(#RJI said “The said activities by China seriously infringe upon Viet Nam’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagos, violate the international laws and the agreement on basic principles guiding the settlement of maritime issues between Viet Nam and China signed in October 2011, and indeed go against the spirit of the Declaration on Conducts of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) signed between ASEAN and China in 2002, thus further complicating the situation in the East Sea. Those actions are completely invalid.”

Regional Snapshots

Philippine, US Marines begin annual joint exercises

The Armed Forces of the Philippines starts Monday (October 8^th) joint exercises with soldiers of the United States to strengthen their defense partnership. In a statement, First Lt. Cherry Tindog, director of the Philippine Marine Corps public affairs office, said the 10-day Philippines-US Amphibious Landing Exercise 2013 would focus on humanitarian assistance, disaster response and relief preparedness, maritime security and community development.

USS George Washington Makes First Visit to Malaysia

The U.S. Navy's full-time forward-deployed aircraft carrier and its crew of more than 5,000 Sailors arrived in Malaysia for a routine, five-day port visit, on October 7^th. The port visit will be kicked-off with a welcome reception aboard George Washington for more than 500 Malaysian dignitaries and distinguished visitors, and U.S. embassy and military personnel.

Japan to push cyberdefense network

After a recent spate of international cyber-attacks--many of which are believed to have originated in China--the Japanese government plans to promote a cyber-attack defense network with 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, according to sources. In particular, the government plans to construct a system that will facilitate contact between officials in charge of cyber-attacks in each country so they can share information about attacks. The system also would make it possible for the countries to take joint countermeasures when one of them is attacked.

Japan, Cambodia discuss maritime disputes

Japan’s deputy chief Cabinet minister met with Prime Minister Hun Sen and Foreign Minister Hor Namhong to discuss territorial disputes in the South and East China seas ahead of a pair of major regional summits in Phnom Penh next month. Tsuyoshi Saito was on a three-day visit intended to help ensure the summits’ “success” and to clarify Japan’s “issues with surrounding countries” including South Korea and China, said Tatsuya Machida, spokesman for the Japanese Embassy.

Commentaries & Analyses

The Asian Cold War

So far, no lives have been lost in the waters off the Senkakus or on the streets of Beijing. This would harm both economies, destabilize world markets, and force the United States into excruciatingly difficult choices over whether to uphold its mutual defense treaty with Japan and put at risk its entire relationship with China. Yet even absent intervention by the United States, China's numerous maritime disputes with neighbors make it harder to claim that it is the aggrieved party. Whatever course China's leadership chooses, it will continue to believe itself to be wronged and that Japan precipitated this crisis by unilaterally trying to change the islands' status. Japan asserts that its 40 years of administrative control simply reflect its rightful ownership of the islands dating back a century. Shots may be avoided, but the cold war between Beijing and Tokyo is real and on display for all to see. However the current crisis gets resolved, it seems a safe bet that relations will only grow chillier with time.

Europe’s Involvement In East Asian Security: How To Engage China

Periods of crisis are conducive to strategic readjustments and should give way to an improved focus on top priorities. Europe and Asia are deeply interdependent. The economic crisis is clearly affecting both regions; but these mutual economic fragilities should also be measured in security terms. Europe cannot present itself as a global actor that has China as its second-largest trading partner and that signed an extremely ambitious bilateral trade agreement with South Korea, without being more engaged in Asian security issues. Asian countries are asking for more involvement and see the EU as a more neutral actor than the United States. Europe must commit itself more courageously in supporting regionalism and multilateral security platforms, and to developing security dialogues with East Asian countries, large and small. Finally, Europe has everything to gain through more concrete engagement with China. A wide spectrum of soft security issues could allow Europe to construct shared agendas with the Chinese authorities, while also positively impacting on the autonomy and legitimacy of Chinese civil society. A more structured agenda for a selected engagement with Beijing is urgently required.

How Asia can defuse island disputes

It is time for East Asia's two great powers to abandon blatantly inconsistent and reckless posturing and start to deal with island disputes in the mature, far-sighted way they often deal with other issues. Emotional vows to safeguard national sovereignty, one-sided advertisements, organised mass protests, self- destructive economic sanctions, and dramatic coastguard skirmishes are threatening to undermine all that has been accomplished in the region. Respected voices not only in China and Japan but also in Taiwan, South Korea, Southeast Asia and the West are beginning to advocate a saner course. A creative, courageous resort to international law can light the way. Wise leaders of China and Japan can defuse these territorial tensions by agreeing to persuade neighbouring nations to join them in submitting all island ownership disputes, if not to the International Court of Justice, then to an impartial regional tribunal that can be established for the specific purpose of deciding their claims in a neutral forum. There is much room for negotiation over how to ensure such a tribunal's competence, independence and fairness, but this is a feasible task that will immediately channel national energies into a constructive path.

The South China Sea — Who Decides?

The prospects of reaching diplomatic solutions depend largely on the willingness of China to limit its unilateral assertions to large pieces of territory – much of it uninhabitable – in return for limited access to the seas, to the undersea resources, and to small outcroppings of rocks and other pieces of land. The core issue, from China’s standpoint, is they claim virtually the entire South China Sea, and they do not recognize the competing claims of the other countries in the region.  They trace their claim lines back to a map that was drawn in the 1920s, unilaterally.  That map is called the “nine dash” map because it refers to nine marks on the map that cover most of the the whole area, including most of the conflicting claims. For obvious reasons, China prefers to negotiate one-on-one with its neighbors, while the neighbors want to widen the scope of the discussions. The countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are considerably stronger together than any of them are as individual claimants. But more important than the territories or the populations that are the subject of the current disputes are the long-term strategic interests of the countries in the region to find a basis for accommodation that can be applied broadly in the South China Sea. This is a challenge for the countries of the region – including the US. But with sustained effort and some willingness to accommodate the interests of others, this is a solvable problem. 

Could Asia really go to war?

Optimists point out that the latest scuffle is mainly a piece of political theatre—the product of elections in Japan and a leadership transition in China. And Asia is too busy making money to have time for making war. However, the bickering over islands is a serious threat to the region’s peace and prosperity. Three immediate safeguards are needed to settle this issue. One is to limit the scope for mishaps to escalate into crises. A collision at sea would be less awkward if a code of conduct set out how vessels should behave and what to do after an accident. Governments would find it easier to work together in emergencies if they routinely worked together in regional bodies A second safeguard is to rediscover ways to shelve disputes over sovereignty, without prejudice. Once sovereignty claims have been shelved, countries can start to share out the resources—or better still, declare the islands and their waters a marine nature reserve. But not everything can be solved by co-operation, and so the third safeguard is to bolster deterrence. With the Senkakus, America has been unambiguous: although it takes no position on sovereignty, they are administered by Japan and hence fall under its protection. Asia needs to escape from a descent into corrosive mistrust. What better way for China to show that it is sincere about its peaceful rise than to take the lead?