Weekly Bulletin (13 May - 19 May)

Activities of the Claimants

China

Field survey illegally conducted in the South China Sea

To advance the construction of China's newest city, an official delegation completed a field survey of the islands and waters within the jurisdiction of the so-called Sansha City on May 14^th, according to the provincial authorities of Hainan. From May 6 to 14, a delegation of relevant officials at both the provincial and city levels traveled 2,270 nautical miles on board the Yuzheng-310, a fishery administration patrol vessel. They surveyed the James Reef, as well as the Chu Thap, Vanh Khan and Subi reefs.

East China Sea fleet to hold drills in South China Sea

A Chinese PLA naval fleet is on its way to the South China Sea for drills, shortly after conducting patrols and exercises in the West Pacific. The East China Sea fleet entered Bashi Channel at 7 AM on May 13^th. Bashi Channel is an international waterway linking the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. It’s also the main passage for strategic materials coming from the Middle East, Africa and southeast Asia to the US and Japan.

China unilaterally imposes annual South China Sea fishing ban

The annual fishing ban comes into effect from 12 pm on May 16^th to 12 pm on August 1^st.The annual fishing ban, which has been in place since 1999 covers areas north of the 12th parallel, including Scarborough Shoal.

Chinese fishery patrol boat arrived in South China Sea

Yuzheng 311 boat arrived in the South China Sea on May 18^th. At over 4,000 tons, the well-equipped vessel is responsible for the so-called mission of safeguarding Chinese fishing boats and emergency rescues.

Taiwan takes action against Philippines in diplomatic row

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou has decided to follow through on threats to take punitive action against the Philippines because Manila's response over a shooting death of a Taiwanese fisherman was inadequate, Presidential Office spokeswoman Garfie Li said on May 15^th. "President Ma was strongly dissatisfied with the Philippines' response," Li said at a news conference held after Ma hosted a National Security Council meeting. Taiwan has decided to immediately suspend the processing of applications by Filipinos to work in Taiwan, recall its representative in Manila and ask the Philippine representative in Taipei to return to his country to assist in handling the case, Li said. President Ma issued a 72-hour ultimatum on May 11 in which he demanded that the Philippines apologize for the shooting death of a Taiwanese fisherman by a Philippine government vessel on May 9, compensate the victim's family, investigate the incident and punish those responsible, and start talks on a bilateral fishery agreement. On May 16^th, spokeswoman Garfie Li said that Taiwan will maintain sanctions against Manila until demands met.

Taiwan holds joint Navy, Coast Guard drill

Taiwan's Navy sent the Kidd-class destroyer Ma Kong and the Lafayette frigate Chen De to join four Coast Guard Administration (CGA) patrol vessels for the exercise held on May 16^th at waters near a Taiwan-Philippine temporary law enforcement line. The drill began after an S-70C anti-submarine helicopter took off from the Chen De, conducting surveillance together with the Ma Kong and CGA vessels. The exercise was tasked with scanning for possible enemies in the air and the sea. Another exercise involved a search and rescue operation in the wake of personnel falling overboard.

Vietnam

Vietnam protests China’s fishing ban in East Sea

Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on May 15^th protested against China’s unilateral implementation of a ban on fishing in the East Sea. “China’s unilateral implementation of the ban on fishing in the East Sea in 2013 which encompasses some portions of Vietnam’s waters violates Vietnam’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa (Paracel) archipelago, its sovereign rights and jurisdiction over its exclusive economic zone and continental shelf under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,” said Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Luong Thanh Nghi.

The Philippines

Philippine leader urges calm over Taiwan shooting

Philippine President Benigno Aquino called for calm May 13^th amid an escalating dispute with Taiwan over the death of a Taiwanese fisherman in a confrontation with the Filipino coastguard. Aquino said Manila's de facto embassy in Taiwan was in talks with Taiwanese foreign ministry officials and had assured them an investigation was being carried out into last week's incident in which the fisherman was shot dead.

Chinese warship chases Philippine boats

A Chinese warship chased and tailed, in a provocative manner, the utility boat of Kalayaan island town with 147 civilian passengers, including the group of re-elected Mayor Eugenio Bito-onon. Bito-onon said the Chinese warship coming from the east side area of Co May Reef (Philippines calls it Ayungin Reef), used its powerful floodlights while chasing and tailing M/T Queen Seagull early on May 16^th. Bito-onon said the Chinese warship only stopped tailing them when their boat was already navigating around the Trang Khuyet Shoal (Half Moon Shoal).

Philippines apologizes to Taiwan over fisherman’s death

The Philippines on May 15^th apologized to Taiwan after coast guards shot dead a Taiwanese fisherman sparking tensions that saw Taipei threaten a naval exercise near Philippine waters. The Philippine government will send a special envoy to Taiwan to convey his apologies and condolences to the family of 65-year-old fisherman Hung Shih-cheng, Philippine ambassador to Taipei Basilio said. “Chairman (Amadeo) Perez will repeat his deep regret and apology from the people of the Philippines to the people of Taiwan and the family of Mr. Hung for the grief and suffering from his death,” Basilio said, adding that the Philippines would provide “financial assistance” to the victim’s family. Perez Jr. is chairman of the Manila Economic and Cultural Office (MECO) that represents the Philippines’ interest in Taiwan.

Chinese warship chases Philippine boats

A Chinese warship chased and tailed, in a provocative manner, the utility boat of Kalayaan island town with 147 civilian passengers, including the group of re-elected Mayor Eugenio Bito-onon. Bito-onon said the Chinese warship coming from the east side area of Co May Reef (Philippines calls it Ayungin Reef), used its powerful floodlights while chasing and tailing M/T Queen Seagull early on May 16^th. Bito-onon said the Chinese warship only stopped tailing them when their boat was already navigating around the Trang Khuyet Shoal (Half Moon Shoal).

Philippines rejects Taiwan "murder" claims

Speaking at a news conference, Chen Wen-chi, head of the Taiwan team investigating the May 9^th incident, said most of the bullets had hit the fishing boat's cockpit where its crew hid. However, Philippine President Benigno Aquino's spokesman Ricky Carandang rejected the murder allegations. "There is an investigation ongoing so any premature statements that tend to confuse the issues and inflame passions should be avoided," Carandang told AFP.

The U.S.

U.S. voices 'regret' at death of Taiwanese fisherman

The United States Monday voiced regret over the death of a Taiwanese fisherman killed when the Philippine coast guard fired on his vessel, but stopped short of condemning the incident. "We regret the tragic death of a Taiwan fishing boat master during a May 9 confrontation at sea with a Philippine patrol vessel," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters. "The United States has been in touch with both the Philippine government and the Taiwan authorities regarding this incident. And we welcome the Philippine government's pledge to conduct a full and transparent investigation." Pressed by reporters to take a stronger stand, Psaki said merely that Washington continued to urge all sides "to refrain from provocative actions." "There will be an investigation into this case, and we'll follow that closely," she added.

Full statement

Others

Russia, India to invest in the South China Sea

Russia’s state-run oil giant Rosneft has pledged to invest around $100 million in geological prospecting and drilling off Vietnam after it received approval for a new oil bloc there, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said on May 15^th. “We have received approval for another bloc, 05-3/11, close to the existing bloc… we’ll be able to use the existing infrastructure. This year, we’ll spend about $27 million on geological prospecting while overall obligations [for Rosneft] for geological prospecting and drilling amount to about $100 million,” Sechin said. India is also set to pump in $145.94 million in a gas field in the politically sensitive region. The Indian investment is aimed at raising the stake of ONGC’s foreign arm OVL in the joint venture for gas field 06.1 in Nam Con Son basin off Vietnam’s south coast. Currently, OVL owns 45% stake while BP (British Petroleum) has 35% and PetroVietnam owns the remaining 20% share.

Indonesia Foreign Minister seeks new Asia treaty to curb conflict

On a visit to Washington, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said that a new treaty could help end "the all-too-familiar vicious cycle of tensions" in Asia and instead encourage confidence by bringing countries together in their goals. “Peace and stability in the region ought to be brought about through the promotion of an outlook that speaks of common security, common prosperity and common stability," he told the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Natalegawa said an "Indo-Pacific-Wide Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation" would be along the model of the ASEAN bloc's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, which bans the use of force in settling disputes in Southeast Asia.

Regional Snapshots

Japan, Brunei to boost maritime security cooperation

On May 13^th, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a summit meeting with His Majesty Haji Hassanal Bolkiah, Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam, who is visiting Japan. The two sides agreed to continue strengthening cooperative relations in the fields of disaster relief and maritime security. Prime Minister Abe said that Japan would exert every effort toward the success of multilateral exercises under the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM Plus) to be held in Brunei in June.

EU to support the peaceful settlement in the South China Sea disputes

At a meeting between senior officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union (EU) held in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam on May 14 and 15, the EU reiterated support for the peaceful settlement of disputes in the South China Sea in accordance with international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The EU underscored its interest in peace, maritime security, stability, freedom of navigation, and unimpeded commerce in the South China Sea. The EU also called on concerned parties to clarify their claims on the basis of UNCLOS.

Thai naval ship docks at Ho Chi Minh City’s port

The HTMS Narathiwat, a Thai patrol ship, led by Rear Admiral Sompop Suwitayalangkarn, Chief of the Staff of the Thai Navy’s Region 2, with 120 officers and sailors on board, anchored at the Ho Chi Minh City port, starting their 5-day ffrienship visit to Vietnam on May 17th. The ship’s visit will contribute to tightening relations between Vietnam and Thailand’s defence cooperation in general and the two sides’ navies in particular.

Commentaries & Analyses

South China Sea Security: An Amalgam Of Proxies, Paradoxes Or Profuse Pragmatism?

By Dr. Muhammad Aslam Khan Niazi

South Chia Sea (SCS) security dilemma is not only complex but challenging. US and China emerge after evaluation from all angles of the calculus, the sole powers who would decide the destiny of SCS. However, the constructive role of other SCS border states cannot be relegated to lesser significance. The lesser powers in the region got to muster an increased sense of faith in multilateral dialogue option. Economic inter-dependability is emerging vital ground to shun war and violence as execrable acts. Spread of prosperity through economic interdependence would keep the world hostage to peace. That will remain a welcome proposition. China, being militarily strong in SCS, draws obvious flak for coercing neighbours through its forward if not aggressive posture, driven by its weakness of domestic politics, an aspect the West does not always take into account. An analyst made very realistic remarks: Over the next decade or so, the Middle Kingdom’s future will hinge on the dynamic between the fear of revolution and the hope for political reform. The threat of revolution from below may push the elite to pursue incremental yet bold political reform. Should reform fail, however, revolt may well be the upshot. And the unfolding drama, wherever it leads, will undoubtedly have profound ramifications far beyond China’s borders (Li 2013, p. 47). Hence Chinese exercise to keep the courtyard in order may be leaning on SCS geopolitics as an instrument of effective appeasement, directed inwardly. SCS littorals and others with heavy stakes in the arena have to avoid making it the pivot of geopolitics. Choong (2013) quotes a Chinese professor, raising very pertinent questions, ‘If China doesn`t have a Cold War mentality, why does it see the US as the main threat? If the US doesn`t have a Cold War mentality, why does it deploy so many troops in Asia? To obviate unwinding of plethora of irritants, sagacity points to an opportunity for both the arch actors to settle down, talk and build an edifice of peace that embraces South as well as ECS. Therefore, one would hinge huge hope on new leadership of China and the renewed leadership of United States of America to mobilise and commit their energies toward this end.

Why China’s Return to the Sea May Not Be All Bad

By Christian Le Mière

Some positives to be taken from the recent Chinese maritime policy changes. First, it creates a simpler bureaucracy for communication and coordination with other maritime constabulary agencies in the region. Previously, when an accident or event occurred, officials in Tokyo, Hanoi or Manila wondered whether to contact the Chinese maritime agency, the military, the provincial government or the central government. Now, with one unified command, there is a clearer sense of who to call to ensure disagreements do not escalate. Second, it prevents China from claiming that it is not in control of its own maritime policy. Before, with multiple agencies, governments and actors involved in policing and exploiting the seas, Beijing could argue, and with some justification, that competition between these various groups was both inherently escalatory and difficult to control for the central government. Now, with just one primary maritime constabulary agency clearly under the auspices of the Ministry of Land and Resources, there is no way for the central government not to take full responsibility for events in its near-seas. Similarly, China’s return to the sea need not be all aggression and assertion. With a relatively stable domestic situation, growing interests overseas and a far greater reliance on secure shipping routes for its export-led economic growth, Beijing recognizes the importance of the sea and is funneling funds to its navy and maritime agencies accordingly. This naval build-up, which has been undertaken in earnest since the early 1990s, is obviously worrisome for other nations in the neighborhood, but it is possible that China’s increasing strength could be directed towards beneficial outcomes. Given China’s desire to ensure the security of shipping, which mirrors the position of other maritime trading nations such as the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan, Beijing could be encouraged to assist in operations protecting freedom of navigation and the policing of international maritime thoroughfares. China’s return to the sea is inevitable, and hence rival states should attempt to guide this shift in posture towards a positive outcome. Beijing has avoided major conflict for nearly 35 years, and seems set to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Encouraging Beijing to ascribe to the rules already enshrined in current international law could help lead to a powerful but peaceful Chinese navy, assisting in maintaining the system of maritime trade and traffic rather than disrupting it.

India’s Interest In South China Sea: Freedom Of Navigation

By Darshana M. Baruah

The Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) running through the South China Sea are of vital importance to all Asian nations including India. The Indian Navy has recognised the protection of the SLOC as one of its missions in the military role. The Indian Maritime Doctrine states that “In view of the nation’s heavy dependence on the seas for trade, protection of own SLOCs is an important mission of India. Political trouble in the South China Sea inevitably draws India’s attention as this affects its interest in the freedom of navigation. India has always maintained its stand on uninterrupted access to international waters and major SLOCs. It is in India’s national interest that the SLOCs in the SCS remain secure and stable given that 55 per cent of India’s trade transits through this route. India also has economic assets in Vietnam for which access to the SCS is vital. New Delhi’s growing concern toward maintaining peace and stability around SLOCs was voiced recently at the India-ASEAN commemorative summit in December 2012. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in his opening statement at the 2012 Summit stated that “As maritime nations, India and ASEAN nations should intensify their engagement for maritime security and safety, for freedom of navigation and for peaceful settlement of maritime disputes in accordance with international law.” China’s attempt to levy its national laws on international waters is alarming to the international community. India’s Defence Minister A.K Antony underlined the need to abide by international laws at the 2012 Shangri-La Dialogue. He emphasised that “Like individual freedoms, the fullness of maritime freedoms can be realised only when all states, big and small, are willing to abide by universally agreed laws and principles”. India’s stance in the South China Sea is clear: there should be no obstruction of freedom of navigation in international waters. Overriding international norms in these waters will further escalate the disputes adversely affecting the freedom of navigation. New Delhi must stand committed to its rhetoric on the freedom of navigation and to defend its interests should the need arise. This in turn would involve deepening naval cooperation with the key countries of the ASEAN and major powers sharing India’s interest in defending the principle of freedom of navigation.

Why China and the US won’t go to war over the South China Sea

By Carlyle A. Thayer

For US-China relations, it is likely in the future that China and the United States will maintain a relationship of cooperation and friction. In this scenario, both countries work separately to secure their interests through multilateral institutions such as the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus and the Enlarged ASEAN Maritime Forum. But they also continue to engage each other on points of mutual interest. The Pentagon has consistently sought to keep channels of communication open with China through three established bilateral mechanisms: Defense Consultative Talks, the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA), and the Defense Policy Coordination Talks. On the one hand, these multilateral mechanisms reveal very little about US–China military relations. Military-to-military contacts between the two countries have gone through repeated cycles of cooperation and suspension, meaning that it has not been possible to isolate purely military-to-military contacts from their political and strategic settings. On the other hand, the channels have accomplished the following: continuing exchange visits by high-level defence officials; regular Defense Consultation Talks; continuing working-level discussions under the MMCA; agreement on the ‘7-point consensus’; and no serious naval incidents since the 2009 USNS Impeccable affair. They have also helped to ensure continuing exchange visits by senior military officers; the initiation of a Strategic Security Dialogue as part of the ministerial-level Strategic & Economic Dialogue process; agreement to hold meetings between coast guards; and agreement on a new working group to draft principles to establish a framework for military-to-military cooperation. So the bottom line is that, despite ongoing frictions in their relationship, the United States and China will continue engaging with each other. Both sides understand that military-to-military contacts are a critical component of bilateral engagement. Without such interaction there is a risk that mistrust between the two militaries could spill over and have a major negative impact on bilateral relations in general. But strategic mistrust will probably persist in the absence of greater transparency in military-to-military relations. In sum, Sino-American relations in the South China Sea are more likely to be characterised by cooperation and friction than a modus vivendi of collaboration or, a worst-case scenario, armed conflict.