21/03/2023
Philippine Coast Guard. Photo: Rappler.
The Philippines and the US reached decisions to resume joint patrols in the South China Sea (which had previously been suspended by President Rodrigo Duterte) during US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s visit to the Philippines earlier this year. Subsequently, the Philippines Coast Guard (PCG) spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela revealed on Feb 25 that the two countries had begun to discuss this possibility.
Besides the US, the Philippines is welcoming other “like-minded” partners to participate in joint patrols in the South China Sea. Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Romualdez said on Feb 27 that South China Sea joint patrols could include both Japan and Australia. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) on Mar 2 confirmed the development of guidelines for the conduct of combined maritime activities in the South China Sea, including joint patrols.
One question arises: how feasible are these joint patrols in the South China Sea?
1. Favorable conditions- All the potential joint patrol partners share similar regional visions with the Philippines. These countries are either US allies or US "like-minded” partners, which released their own Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), and are committed to the rules-based order in the South China Sea as well as ASEAN’s centrality, etc. During a recent visit to the Philippines, Australian Defense Secretary Richard Marles said the two countries shared “national interests” and "collective security". The Philippines does not view AUKUS, which involves Australia and the US, as threatening as some other ASEAN members.
- All countries are bolstering ties with the Philippines in a wide range of areas, focusing on security - defense cooperation. The Philippines signed an agreement on disaster relief with Japan on Feb 9; left the door open for a bilateral Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA); and emphasized strengthening defense and security, and economic cooperation in the Japan-Philippines joint statement on Feb 9. Additionally, President Marcos said the Philippines would review a proposed "tripartite agreement" with the US and Japan. The Philippines and Australia both expressed the desire to elevate their partnership while reaffirming that maritime security remains a core pillar of the two countries' defense relations.
- High-level officials from these countries have positively spoken of this possibility, indicating political will. The Australian Defense Secretary said the two countries (the Philippines and Australia) were in talks about launching joint maritime patrols and conducting more exercises. The Japanese Embassy in Manila said on Feb 28 that there was currently no specific joint patrol plan, yet would "explore" possible maritime cooperation to reinforce Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) and maritime law enforcement in the Indo-Pacific.
- These countries have closely coordinated with each other in similar fields. The US, Japan and Australia have regularly conducted joint exercises at sea, including in the South China Sea, such as holding the trilateral exercise in the South China Sea on Mar 15, 2022 or the quadrilateral exercise (plus Canada) on Oct 4-8 and Oct 17, 2022. In the past, the four countries have participated in a multinational patrol called Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) off the coast of Somalia and the Western Indian Ocean. The Philippines and Australia held joint anti-terrorism patrols in the southern Philippines in 2017.
2. Obstacles to the new cooperation?In an interview with The Paper (China), researcher Ling Yunzhi (Nanjing University) perceived that it was difficult to achieve the four-nation (US-Japan-Australia-Philippines) alliance. He cited three main reasons:
- The US-Philippines diplomatic relations and military cooperation have a lot of vicissitudes. The Philippines has always been skeptical about US commitment to the Philippines in the South China Sea and the level of cooperation in key issues, especially when the US is going through political changes.
- Quadrilateral patrols in the South China Sea will undermine the status quo of the South China Sea disputes, then lead to escalation, which is an unwanted vista to regional countries.
- That the Philippines hopes to obtain US political and security guarantees through deepening military cooperation does not mean that it is willing to be a "pawn" in Sino-US rivalry, noting that economic benefits from China are still important to the Philippines.
However, it is suggested that the Marcos administration will pursue a tougher South China Sea policy and closer alignment with the US and its partners, thereby easily bypassing these “obstacles” to focus on enhancing deterrence capabilities and pursue the possibility of multilateral joint patrols.
The post is originally published here
Translated by Ngan Do
Revised by HD, Luu Viet Ha
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