On September 17, The Conversation published a commentary by Dr. Benjamin Herscovitch (Australian National University) on the occasion of the three-year anniversary of AUKUS. The article argues that AUKUS can act as a deterence against China[1] for three main reasons, possibly to promote internal political support for AUKUS in Australia, especially when a new pillar has been added to AUKUS.
First, AUKUS effectively monitors and limits the operations of China's strategic nuclear weapons-capable submarines based in Hainan Island by tracking, collecting hydro-acoustic information and even participating in conflict scenarios. Second, AUKUS can directly threaten China's infrastructure from a long distance because it can be equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles, at the same time can limit China's access to economic inputs for conflicts. Third, AUKUS allows the US and its allies to deploy other high-end military forces and equipements to the region, tipping the balance towards the US.
However, the article does not go into detail about the obstacles to AUKUS in the past three years.It is reported by some sources that the US shipbuilding plan is behind schedule by two to three years, directly affecting AUKUS.[2] Moreover, even some “hawkish” voices (often supportive of AUKUS) in the US admit that it is the US export control policy that has held back AUKUS. According to AEI, of the three AUKUS countries, the UK is the only one to improve its domestic laws to "pave the way" for AUKUS.[3] Last but not least, some domestic fractions in Australia now still cite criticisms of AUKUS which have been around since 2021. These criticisms may be more political and have been refuted, but they still show that obstacles are still there on the road to AUKUS.[4]
An original version of the article was published here.
Translated & Edited by NH.
[1] https://theconversation.com/china-says-aukus-is-driven-by-cold-war-thinking-here-are-3-reasons-it-is-so-threatened-by-the-pact-236065?fbclid=IwY2xjawFuNXlleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHb9tatUk06u5WQLVmLqXpuij-zpAZ4Zftp0o3hPkDhfHIESXht34zIJCyA_aem_Bf_HVLrP0XLRczcFPjOQVQ
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/05/us-shipyards-behind-schedule-on-submarines-as-concerns-grow-for-aukus-pact?fbclid=IwY2xjawFuQ_9leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHdb0f-yrr39Nd7fYf3iTyZSm3OdqixZVWcMJkw7JnCQrkpdMoxlxKAw8Ew_aem_r9F40w6q-a2RhfAMpLi44g
[3] https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/aukus-at-3-years-time-to-change-course/?fbclid=IwY2xjawFuRhhleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHa-IQANRiTotHlqpM-izCvAKwNvhhBYc_EEjwuyjeb8VCju1P9k7u_aBiQ_aem_ZfXCqcn2X3DRWOFMRvFDTA
[4] https://reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/australia-cant-afford-an-aukus-about-face-5-things-the-critics-are-getting-wrong?fbclid=IwY2xjawFuR1NleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHcov0sGMUN1SuwklknaxE4MYa8D13zI2NTBVuWW3F6qSOuMr84ICAAPlhA_aem__mIy3pXu4aNgCYr76W238Q
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